Model Trust Center

Model Insights

Validation, feature importance, and the logic behind the predictions.

Top Drivers
KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency
0.040
Barttorvik Adj. Efficiency Margin
0.038
Elo Rating
0.029
KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency
0.027
Turnover %
0.027
TR Consistency Rating
0.027
True Tempo
0.026
KenPom Adj. Efficiency Margin
0.020
Validation Metrics
YearModelAccuracyAUCBrierLog Loss
2011 logistic 0.619 0.662 0.259 0.765
2011 boosting 0.635 0.699 0.259 0.794
2012 logistic 0.746 0.758 0.194 0.598
2012 boosting 0.794 0.833 0.158 0.497
2013 logistic 0.635 0.709 0.225 0.654
2013 boosting 0.683 0.729 0.219 0.698
2014 logistic 0.683 0.705 0.212 0.617
2014 boosting 0.571 0.660 0.267 0.775
2015 logistic 0.746 0.814 0.156 0.480
2015 boosting 0.683 0.751 0.195 0.592
2016 logistic 0.698 0.754 0.197 0.576
2016 boosting 0.714 0.745 0.211 0.627
2017 logistic 0.762 0.790 0.178 0.530
2017 boosting 0.714 0.798 0.183 0.544
2018 logistic 0.619 0.683 0.233 0.683
2018 boosting 0.683 0.712 0.229 0.698
2019 logistic 0.746 0.861 0.160 0.477
2019 boosting 0.730 0.831 0.185 0.536
2021 logistic 0.645 0.668 0.212 0.638
2021 boosting 0.677 0.612 0.242 0.704
2022 logistic 0.730 0.780 0.199 0.589
2022 boosting 0.667 0.706 0.241 0.711
2023 logistic 0.619 0.653 0.228 0.706
2023 boosting 0.571 0.618 0.252 0.716
2024 logistic 0.698 0.764 0.191 0.552
2024 boosting 0.683 0.697 0.217 0.649
2025 logistic 0.825 0.890 0.135 0.429
2025 boosting 0.794 0.845 0.153 0.466