Simulation Room
Monte Carlo Outlook
Top Simulation Table
| Team | Seed | AdjEM | Elite 8 | Final Four | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 1 | 37.7 | 75.0% | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Florida | 1 | 33.8 | 75.0% | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| Michigan | 1 | 37.6 | 75.0% | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Duke | 1 | 38.9 | 100.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Illinois | 3 | 32.1 | 75.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Houston | 2 | 33.4 | 75.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Iowa St. | 2 | 32.4 | 75.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| North Carolina | 6 | 20.8 | 25.0% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
Upset Watch
Duke
Seed 1 · East
Volatile
Houston
Seed 2 · Midwest
Volatile
Iowa St.
Seed 2 · South
Volatile
Michigan St.
Seed 3 · West
Volatile
Purdue
Seed 2 · West
Volatile
Connecticut
Seed 2 · East
Volatile
Kansas
Seed 4 · East
Volatile
Vanderbilt
Seed 5 · East
Volatile
Round of 64 Matchup Watch
| Region | Matchup | Win Probabilities |
|---|---|---|
| East | Duke (1) vs LIU Brooklyn (16) | 96.7% / 3.3% |
| East | Clemson (8) vs Iowa (9) | 56.6% / 43.4% |
| East | Vanderbilt (5) vs High Point (12) | 91.4% / 8.6% |
| East | Kansas (4) vs Hofstra (13) | 86.5% / 13.5% |
| East | North Carolina (6) vs North Carolina St. (11) | 63.9% / 36.1% |
| East | Illinois (3) vs Kennesaw St. (14) | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| East | Saint Mary's (7) vs UCF (10) | 75.5% / 24.5% |
| East | Connecticut (2) vs Idaho (15) | 94.6% / 5.4% |
| Midwest | Florida (1) vs UMBC (16) | 80.8% / 19.2% |
| Midwest | Ohio St. (8) vs TCU (9) | 64.3% / 35.7% |
| Midwest | Wisconsin (5) vs Akron (12) | 84.7% / 15.3% |
| Midwest | Nebraska (4) vs Troy (13) | 84.7% / 15.3% |
| Midwest | Tennessee (6) vs VCU (11) | 79.5% / 20.5% |
| Midwest | Virginia (3) vs North Dakota St. (14) | 88.6% / 11.4% |
| Midwest | Miami FL (7) vs Santa Clara (10) | 53.9% / 46.1% |
| Midwest | Houston (2) vs Furman (15) | 97.4% / 2.6% |